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Advancing Deforestation risk mapping using UDef-ARP 

Clark Labs (now part of the Clark Center for Geospatial Analytics) in cooperation with TerraCarbon LLC, have been contracted to develop a methodology for assessing and allocating the risk of unplanned tropical deforestation by Verra – the leading certifier of voluntary carbon credits. The methodology, known as VT0007 Unplanned Deforestation Allocation (UDEF-A) is a critical piece of Verra’s Verified Carbon Standard (VCS). The VCS seeks to reduce carbon emissions by establishing the basis for the transaction of payments from investors to REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) project proponents in return for emission reductions.   

UDEF-ARP_PREDICTED_DENSITY
Figure 1: A prediction of deforestation in Para State, Brazil 2013-2018. The prediction was used for testing based on a model developed from a calibration period from 2009-2013.


Led by Emeritus Professor and Senior Research Scientist, Dr. Ron Eastman, Geography Professor Gil Pontius, and Dr. Rebecca Dickson from TerraCarbon, the team of 10 CGA and TerraCarbon staff developed the analytical logic for predicting and quantitatively allocating the risk of deforestation in REDD project areas in the absence of protection measures. The difference between this prediction and actual deforestation during the project lifespan then provides the basis for the payments to projects for their emission reductions. 
  

CGA staff associated with the project include Ron Eastman, Rishi Singh, Eli Simonson, Yao-Ting Yao, and Ruthanne Ward.  

Researchers, conservationists, and students are welcome to explore the basis for the tool by clicking here, and try the UDef-ARP by clicking here.